2021 NASCAR playoff predictions ahead of championship-deciding format
The 2021 NASCAR playoffs kick off this weekend at the Southern 500 in Darlington, with 16 drivers chasing the cup championship.Who are the playoff favorites, Who will quit early?here is Focus forecast.
750 pack to start NASCAR playoffs
The first three rounds, known as the “Round of 16”, took place in Darlington, Richmond and Bristol.
All three events will run a 750-horsepower high-power/low-downforce car package.
If any of the 16 drivers wins any playoff round, they will immediately book a seat for the next stage.
Of course, predicting the 2021 NASCAR playoffs is a dangerous game given the possibility of timely warnings or overtime in 10 rounds.
But based on what we’ve seen in the regular season, historically, this is focus Believe it will happen:
The first to fall into the playoffs will be the suspects
Round of 16 knockout
- Michael McDowell – #34, front row car
- Christopher Bell – #20, Joe Gibbs Racing
- Aric Almirola – #10, Stewart Haas Racing
- Tyler Reddick – #8, Richard Childress Racing
This has nothing to do with the above driver. In fact, all but Redick have won in the regular season — McDowell won his first Cup win at the Daytona 500.
The competition for the opening race of the playoffs will prove that none of the aforementioned four drivers can advance further.
McDowell, Bell and Redick made the playoffs for the first time.
Although Bell is at JGR, his 750-horsepower short-track race has been strong this year, but teammates Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr will be enough to see him off.
Redick sneaked into the playoffs with the biggest advantage in the Daytona playoffs.
The No. 8 RCR didn’t show the explosive speed needed to keep up with more sought-after runners throughout the regular season — but it was a great learning experience for himself and Bell.
As for McDowell’s No. 34 team, he was unlucky with his playoff schedule.
McDowell is a great super racer. He had six top-10 finishes at Daytona and two at Talladega — including a third in the Spring Split.
Photo by Chris Grayson/Getty Images
Talladega is in the middle of the round of 12. This will propel the brave underdog McDowell to go that far.
But all logic suggests he will be the first to leave the 2021 playoffs.
SHR had a terrible year, and Almirola’s hail in New Hampshire was the only success.
Almirola won’t be in trouble in the round of 12 unless he’s careful and lucky to rest.
The champion will enter the round of 12
Round of 12 knockout
- Kurt Busch – #1, Chip Ganassi Racing
- Brad Keselowski – #2, Team Penske
- Kevin Harvick – #4, Stewart Haas Racing
- Alex Bowman – #48, Hendrick Racing
The Round of 12 will have its final road race of the season in Las Vegas, Talladega and Charlotte Roval.
It’s a mix of a 550bhp kit (Vegas), a ‘dega’s limited-plate racer and a roval’s 750 machine.
Of course, predicting a playoff round featuring Talladega is a brave thing to do.
Let’s imagine it’s a routine race in Alabama where one of the drivers who made it to the top 8 wins the race.
Busch, who will join Michael Jordan’s 23XI Racing in 2022, has been lucky in the 2020 playoffs.
Fortunately, a well-timed prudence earned him a home win in Las Vegas and a place in the quarter-finals—a car that probably didn’t deserve to be there.
In fact, this time he needs to repeat it.
The No. 1 this season has done well on road courses, with four top 10s at Daytona, Sonoma, American Road and Indianapolis, but depending on that’s a risky thing to do in roval.
He will be out in the round of 12.
Keselowski leaves Penske without second title
Roush Fenway’s Keselowski has only nine top-10 finishes in the regular season this season, including one win.
It was a disappointing return for a man with 220 top-10 appearances in 439 cup starts as he was younger in Penske.
Penske did well on the 750 track, but Keselowski had a poor record on the road circuit.
31 starts translate to 0 wins and only 10 in the top 10.
Kevin Harvick and teammate Almirola are in pretty much the same predicament during a tough year for SHR.
He’ll be in the round of 12, but it could go either way. He won’t go any further than 12.
Photo by Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Alex Bowman is in a tricky position.
Hendrick’s teammates Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott and William Byron have all shown good pace transitions this summer, while Bowman has not.
Despite a career-best three wins this season, he looked lost at times.
Because of the consistency and strength of others, focal Bowman is predicted to be the first Hendrick to be eliminated.
Top 8 races: The most unpredictable parts of the 2021 NASCAR playoffs
Top 8 knockout rounds:
- Danny Hamlin – #11, Joe Gibbs Racing
- Kyle Busch – #18, Joe Gibbs Racing
- Joey Logano – #22, Team Penske
- William Byron – #24, Hendrick Motorsports
The Top 8 featured Texas, Kansas and Martinsville — two 550-horsepower races followed by 750 races.
Despite a strong, consistent regular season, Danny Hamlin didn’t win a game.
He won’t elaborate on that and is still in a good position with one of the faster cars on the grid.
But will that be enough to give Phoenix another chance at the elusive Cup title? The jury is out.
The same goes for teammate Kyle Busch.
Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images
This year #18 was much better than 2020 (in fact, it couldn’t have been worse).
He’ll be good enough to make it to the last eight, but given Hendrick’s pace in 550, he could face a trip to Martinsville in the knockout rounds and need a win.
On his own team, Martinsville has better drivers than Busch.
Joey Logano and Keselowski are in the same boat.
The only reason #22 is ahead of #2 is his better career record on road courses.
William Byron was a breakthrough year for Hendrick.
Working with crew chief Rudy Fugle, he has 16 top 10 finishes, 11 of which are trots from Homestead to the Tour of the Americas.
A deep playoff run would be good for #24, but any prediction further than the 2021 NASCAR Playoff 8 is too long.
Championship 4
championship 4 contender
- Kyle Larson – #5, Hendrick Motorsports
- Chase Elliott – #9, Hendrick Motorsports
- Ryan Blaney – #12, Team Penske
- Martin Truex Jr, #19 Joe Gibbs Racing
Kyle Larson should win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series.
His performance this season has been nothing short of astounding, as he has five regular-season victories, three of them trotting.
He won the All-Star and regular-season championship.
After leaving the Cup, he cleaned up at the Knoxville Nationals and is arguably the best racer on the planet in 2021.
The only doubt about Larson’s #5 machine is NASCAR itself.
Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images
A bad time yellow could cost him in the quarterfinals.
After all, Harvick’s 2020 regular season was better than Larson’s this year, but it’s still not in the title race.
If all goes according to plan, focal The prediction for the 2021 NASCAR playoffs is that Larson will win his first cup.
His toughest competition will come from defending champion Chase Elliott.
Larsson and Elliott have four one-two-fours in 2021 and are the two best drivers on the grid.
The Georgia-born Elliott has expertly won the last two races of 2020 to clinch the title, so he knows how to handle the pressure.
Just as Elliott took one step forward, Larson took two.
750 Packaging Expert
Outside of the Hendrick Stables, Martin Truex Jr was the best option to deny Rick Hendrick’s 14th Cup title.
There’s a school of thought that to win the cup, you only need to win three games in a season.
Win a game in the regular season, then set the course for the playoffs.
Come to Martinsville and Phoenix, you win them and the championship is yours. This is what Elliott has done in 2020 and what Truex can do this time around.
His 750 pack game is strong. Truex’s No. 19 is as dominant in Martinsville as anywhere else.
This is the last game of the semi-finals of the quarterfinals.
If he needs to get something out of the hat, he will.
He also had a dominant 750-pack in Phoenix in the spring. If Larson would allow him to smell it, he would accept it.
2021 NASCAR Playoff Wild Cards
Ryan Blaney is a mystery.
He’s often been overshadowed by teammates Logano and Keselowski in the past, but this is Blaney’s year.
As #2 and #22 have been struggling, Blaney’s #12 has a purple patch.
He entered the playoffs as the No. 2 seed behind Larson and has finished in the top 10 eight times in his last 11 games.
That includes back-to-back wins at Michigan and Daytona.
His three wins also mean he has three times the record of Logano or Keselowski, and for the first time won more than one in a season.
Blaney’s peak is just right. It was enough to see him all the way to Phoenix.
In the final, all bets were off as it was a winner-take-all showdown.
Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
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Jack usually writes or reads anything related to motorsport – from Formula 1 to NASCAR to British truck racing. His work as a motorsport reporter has been published in prestigious outlets such as Autosport, Motorsport.com and Motorsport News. In addition to racing, he is an avid amateur astronomer, podcast listener, and enjoys walks in the park with his three dogs.
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